Posted by: taylorjs | December 9, 2009

Rule 5 Predictions

Before I get to my predictions for tomorrow’s Rule 5 draft, some brief housekeeping.  I didn’t post anything about the imminent disappearance of Boof Bonser from the organization, although I strongly thought about a post titled “Boof Goes Poof” before my judgement kicked in (but apparently it didn’t stop me from telling you I had this thought — mock if you must).  The reason for this relative disinterest in the topic is that I just can’t bring myself to care all that much about Bonser’s departure.  After all, we’re talking a guy who put together a 5.93 ERA in 42 games and 118.1 innings in 2008 and missed all of 2009.  With many, many pitchers ready to compete for a spot in the rotation going into next spring, and with Bonser being out of options, it only made sense to remove him from the roster to make room for someone else (in this case, Carl Pavano).  Good luck in the future, Boof.  And no, I don’t see the Twins being able to work out a trade for him.

Now, on to the Rule 5 Draft.  First, I don’t expect the Twins to take anyone tomorrow, although stranger things have happened.  Even if the team doesn’t expect to be able to stash the player on the roster next year (and there’s really no room for such a thing), they could draft a player with the intent of giving the guy a shot in Spring Training and/or working out a trade to keep the guy (as they did last year with Jason Jones).  I simply don’t have the time to look through every Rule 5 eligible player throughout the league to try to determine who would be worth drafting, unfortunately, so that’s all I’m going to say about potential Twins selections.

As for Twins Rule 5 eligibles, here’s the breakdown as I see it:

As Good as Gone

I don’t see anyone who is a definite, although I came close to putting Ryan Mullins in this category.

Decent Chance

Ryan Mullins – Good ERA/WHIP, Great K/BB and solid K/9 numbers, left-handed, plentiful AA innings

Eh, Maybe

Brian Dinkelman – Interesting numbers in AA (.296/823), but no proof he can play at higher levels

Matthew Fox – Good ERA/WHIP, solid K numbers in AA, solid minor league history

Erik Lis – Being generous here — solid offensive numbers and decent power make him a maybe

Jose Lugo – Left-handed, big K/9 and good K/BB numbers, minimal time above AA drop him to maybe

Brock Peterson – Very nice 2009, but how much upside does he have?

Steven Singleton – Decent prospect, but just 158 AA at-bats probably not enough to justify selection

Kyle Waldrop – Very nice 2009, but never pitched above AA and lacks K numbers – want to see more

Unlikely

Santos Arias – Solid numbers in 2009, but never pitched higher than Ft. Myers

Allan De San Miguel – Very poor offensively, but ’08 invite to Spring Training for defense

Cole DeVries – ERA/WHIP too high and K/9 not high enough to justify selection

Jair Fernandez – Another poor hitting catcher, never played above High A

Jason Jones – Selected by Twins in 2008, but poor 2009 was a step backwards

Tim Lahey – Back to back troubled seasons in AAA make selection unlikely

Rene Leveret – Solid ’08 & ’09, but never played above High A

Matt Macri – Horrid 2009 significantly dropped his stock

Winston Marquez – Injuries an issue, but left-handed & big K numbers – just 19 IP at low A, though

Dustin Martin – Poor 2009 (.254/670) in AAA with no power makes selection unlikely

Frank Mata – Good ERA & WHIP, but no significant K numbers to justify selection

Juan Portes – Solid 2009, but never played above AA

Brandon Roberts – Like Portes, a decent 2009, but lacks the upside to justify selection

Whit Robbins – OK numbers in AA (.278/753) not enough to justify selection

Ramon Santana – Just 15 AB’s above Low A

Matthew Williams – Too little time above Low A, although solid 2009 numbers

No Way, Jose

Michael Allen

Henry Arias

Mark Dolenc

Toby Gardenhire

Jonathan Goncalves

Paul Kelly – Just too many injuries to justify being taken at this point

Brian Kirwan

Jean Mijares

Miguel Munoz

Yancarlos Ortiz

Angelo Sanchez

Yangervis Solarte

Alexander Soto

Drew Thompson – Never played above Low A, significant injury history

Advertisements

Responses

  1. I really wish BA would have posted all the eligible players from each team like they did last year.

    And although it would never happen, it would be nice to know who actually is listed on the AAA and AA reserve lists. Obviously a guy like Marquez was much more appealing having not been on the AAA list.

  2. I was a bit surprised that Marquez wasn’t placed on the AAA reserve list. His numbers are solid enough that I would have thought he’d get some love. I definitely agree that it would be great to get a chance to see the reserve lists. There probably just aren’t enough people who care about the AA and AAA phases of the Rule 5 draft to make it worthwhile to bother, though.

  3. Josh,

    Can you help me out…

    All reports have claimed the Twins have offered contracts to all 30 unsigned players.

    I count 8 players under contract + Pavano, so 9 players out of 40. That’s 31. I know it shouldn’t bother me… but it does. Do you see anything different when you look at the 40-man roster?

  4. For what it’s worth, your count is the same as my count. Either something strange is going on, or the count being used by the media types is off by 1. Not sure what the answer is. And it’s ok that you’re bothered by it — that kind of stuff gets to me, too!


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

Categories

%d bloggers like this: